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" A stochastic model for mortality: the case study of Naghadeh "
/حسین پور، بشارت
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564915
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| Personal Name - Primary Intelectual Responsibility
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Hosseinpour,Besharat
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| Title and statement of responsibility
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A stochastic model for mortality: the case study of Naghadeh [Thesis]/حسین پور، بشارت;supervisor: Amir Teimour Payandeh Najafabadi;advisor: Reza Ofoghi
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| Publication, Distribution,Etc.
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, 2011
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eng
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Bibliography
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Master of arts
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, Actuarial Science
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, ECO College of Insurance
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| Summary or Abstract
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.هدف تحقیق:یک مدل تصادفی برای مرگ و میر: مطالعه موردی شهرستان نقدهاست.رویکرد تصادفی به مدل بندی روند مرگ- میر یکی از روشهای پیشرفته دقیق آماری است که در سالهای اخیر مورد توجه بسیاری از محققان قرار گرفته است
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Stochastic approach to mortality trend modeling is one of the reliable and advanced statistical methods that have been much referred to recently by most researchers. The present thesis, considers how to use the stochastic model in order to assess mortality in Naghadeh, a town located in the west Azarbaijan province, after presenting a stochastic model offered by Cairns et al, (2006). In a more clarified word, this thesis along with presenting a two factor stochastic model for mortality curved related to post age 60 males and females in Naghadeh analyses mortality process and then according to the fit stochastic model concludes some parameters as follows: (1) Linear improvements affects continuously mortality rate at all ages during the time, (2) linear improvements are more effective at lower ages than at higher ones and (3) the anticipation of mortality rate in Naghadeh, for the year 2011 shows that there is a rather explicit improvement in mortality rate in Naghadeh for all ages which the linear improvement trend is much more at lower ages as compared with higher ones..
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| Topical Name Used as Subject
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Stochastic Mortality Model
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Mortality Rate
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Crude Mortality Rate
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Longevity Risk
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TL
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| Material Type
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Latin Dissertation
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